General Betting Math
Cash-Out Fair Value Calculator
Build the Cash-Out Fair Value case
Enter current information for Cash-Out Fair Value and leave unrelated adjustments outside the form.
The intended use of this page
This page calculates Estimated fair cash-out value from the visible Original stake and Original decimal odds entries. The output applies only to the scenario and market boundaries stated on the form.
Use the Closing Line Value only after deciding that closing line value belongs in the analysis.
As a practical check, use an executable price for the exact selection and stake, not an earlier screenshot or an unavailable best quote.
For this comparison, cash, restricted credit, gross return, and net profit may require separate accounting.
When a narrow answer is unstable
- Original stake belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is amount originally wagered.
- Original decimal odds belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is original bet price.
- Current win probability is a separate input defined as your updated chance that the bet wins.
- At this stage, use a current source for Cash-out offer. Here it means amount offered by the sportsbook.
The model behind the displayed answer
Example calculation
On this page, the example is a formula check rather than a recommended wager.
Original stake is set to $94 for this worked case.
Original decimal odds is set to 3.36 for this worked case.
Current win probability is set to 40.95% for this worked case.
Cash-out offer is set to $131.25 for this worked case.
Applying the Cash-Out Fair Value rule: fair value = potential return × current win probability.
- Sportsbook offer: $131.25
- Offer versus fair value: $1.91
- Potential full return: $315.84
Practical limitations
The current probability estimate is the main source of uncertainty.
For this market, review promotion terms, limits, push treatment, void rules, and whether stake is returned before comparing profit.
Interpreting the model without overreaching
The displayed Estimated fair cash-out value belongs to one scenario, not to every plausible version of the event. Preserve the baseline, create a cautious case for Original stake, and create an optimistic case only if the evidence supports it. Label each output so later comparisons do not mix assumptions.
When Original decimal odds is estimated from a recent sample, ask whether that sample matches the role and duration represented by Current win probability. A longer history may be stable but less relevant; a short history may be current but noisy. The uncertainty should be visible in how Estimated fair cash-out value is described.
Questions before using the result
Can estimated fair cash-out value prove that a wager has value for Cash-Out Fair Value?
In the current scenario, no—source quality, price, limits, and settlement rules still require review.
Within this calculation, can sample values be used for a current market in Cash-Out Fair Value?
Live information is outside this calculator. Verify Original stake, Original decimal odds, and the quoted market time, then run Cash-Out Fair Value again.
For this comparison, why preserve the earlier Cash-Out Fair Value result?
Use a separate comparison: write down Original stake before altering Original decimal odds, then preserve both versions of Estimated fair cash-out value for review.