First Five Innings Moneyline Calculator

The intended use of this page

For First Five Innings Moneyline, this page does not average the ratings. It subtracts Opponent rating from Selected side rating, applies Venue or surface adjustment, and uses Rating points per logistic step as the logistic scale for the probability and fair price.

For this market, a pitcher or lineup change can invalidate a projection before the posted price visibly moves.

Use the First Five Innings Total only after deciding that first five innings total belongs in the analysis.

Reading the formula

Building one compatible input set

• Selected side rating belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is power rating for the selected side.
• Keep Opponent rating on the event basis defined here: power rating on the same scale.
• In this model, use a current source for Venue or surface adjustment. Here it means positive values favor the selected side.
• Keep Rating points per logistic step on the event basis defined here: controls how strongly rating differences affect probability.

How to read the result

As a practical check, compare only after confirming same event, selection, and settlement period.

For the First Five Innings Moneyline Calculator, the example is deliberately separate from the loaded scenario and should be read as a method check, not betting advice.

Selected side rating is set to 3.42 rating points for this worked case.

Opponent rating is set to 1.62 rating points for this worked case.

Venue or surface adjustment is set to 0.282 rating points for this worked case.

Rating points per logistic step is set to 5.6 points for this worked case.

Applying the First Five Innings Moneyline rule: win probability = logistic((selected rating − opponent rating + adjustment) ÷ scale). Under these sample assumptions, the form reports 59.19%.

Fair odds is -145. Rating difference is 2.08. Opponent probability is 40.81%.

For this estimated win probability example, review the formula line and field units if the supporting values disagree with the displayed worked result.

In this model, keep the example separate from the saved market case.

Testing result sensitivity

For this market, a large fair-price swing signals sensitivity to scale or confidence.

Limits of the estimate

At this stage, an event update can stale the input set before the arithmetic changes.

Questions to answer before relying on the result

The label attached to Selected side rating matters as much as its number. Verify whether it describes a full event, a partial period, a player opportunity, or a quoted price. Apply the same scope check to Opponent rating before interpreting Estimated win probability or comparing it with another source.

Questions about this calculator