Free Bet Conversion Calculator

The question behind the result

Use this page when the task is to estimate hedge size and retained value from a stake-not-returned free bet. In this model, the output describes an entered scenario and is not a guarantee.

Executable prices, limits, promotion terms, commission, and timing determine whether an allocation is available.

Free-bet amount records promotional stake that is not returned. For locked promotional value, Qualifying decimal odds represents price used for the free bet.

For the selected event, check the timestamp and unit for Hedge decimal odds because it supplies opposing price used to lock value. Label Exchange commission as observed, quoted, or projected. Its role is commission on hedge winnings.

As a practical check, inputs collected on different dates may describe states that never existed together.

News, format, and settlement context

Recalculate after any quote moves because an old allocation no longer locks the same return.

For this comparison, use an executable price for the exact selection and stake, not an earlier screenshot or an unavailable best quote.

On this page, cash, restricted credit, gross return, and net profit may require separate accounting.

Change one assumption at a time

Keep stake fixed and compare the accepted price with one realistic adverse quote.

For promotions or hedges, test the actual eligible maximum.

Do not change multiple prices when identifying the source of a return difference.

Within this calculation, the calculation uses conversion uses a lay-style hedge and excludes return of the free stake.

Price arithmetic is deterministic once odds and stake are fixed.

Limits, voids, promotions, and correlation determine actual settlement.

In the current scenario, use a separate scenario for a plausible upper or lower assumption.

Reproducing the method

When using the result, these numbers demonstrate how fields flow into the answer.

For the Free Bet Conversion Calculator, the example is deliberately separate from the loaded scenario and should be read as a method check, not betting advice.

Free-bet amount is set to $94 for this worked case.

Qualifying decimal odds is set to 3.92 for this worked case.

Hedge decimal odds is set to 1.365 for this worked case.

Exchange commission is set to 2.1% for this worked case.

Applying the Free Bet Conversion rule: conversion uses a lay-style hedge and excludes return of the free stake.

• Hedge stake: $202.22
• Conversion rate: 76.87%

For this locked promotional value example, review the formula line and field units if the supporting values disagree with the displayed worked result.

On this page, inspect units before changing the formula when results differ.

After Free Bet Conversion, if the next question is sports arbitrage, use the Sports Arbitrage and keep its inputs separate.

Reasons to calculate again

Promotion and exchange settlement rules must match the entered assumptions.

Within this calculation, review promotion terms, limits, push treatment, void rules, and whether stake is returned before comparing profit.

When using the result, a value from another event may use the correct unit while answering a different question.

Reading the headline and supporting rows

Compare calculated return with a price that can be accepted.

A theoretical payout is useless when limits prevent execution.

In the current scenario, use the output as decision support and keep personal limits outside it.

When to update the page

Within this calculation, retain baseline and cautious cases when Free-bet amount remains uncertain.

On this page, preserve the first answer when Exchange commission changes.

Under the entered assumptions, keep current availability separate from the stored estimate.

Do not force kelly criterion into an unrelated field. The Kelly Criterion provides its method.

Input and settlement questions