Tracking Signal Calculator
Divides cumulative signed forecast error by mean absolute deviation to flag persistent bias. The form displays cumulative error / MAD beside tracking signal, using a worked condition that can be recalculated with the labeled inputs.
Set the model inputs at the selected scale
Tracking signal
Purpose of this tracking signal calculation
The tracking signal page divides cumulative signed forecast error by mean absolute deviation to flag persistent bias.
Tracking signal is limited to the statistical quantity named by the result panel. The tracking signal calculation does not silently add a population, time horizon, causal direction, or decision threshold that is absent from the fields.
Before entering the tracking signal data
- Actual values: For tracking signal, the displayed actual values sequence is 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27. Preserve actual values order when tracking signal depends on pairing, lag, rank, or time position, and distinguish an observed zero from a missing actual values entry.
- Forecast values: For tracking signal, the displayed forecast values sequence is 13, 14, 19, 20, 25, 26. Preserve forecast values order when tracking signal depends on pairing, lag, rank, or time position, and distinguish an observed zero from a missing forecast values entry.
The entries used for tracking signal must refer to one coherent analysis condition. Combining incompatible populations, periods, or measurement definitions can produce valid tracking signal arithmetic for a nonexistent study.
How tracking signal is calculated
For tracking signal, match every symbol in the relationship to a labeled field before substituting numbers. Tracking signal is reported in ratio.
While checking tracking signal, use actual values observations from one defined analysis set rather than totals copied from incompatible groups.
Worked values for tracking signal
The default tracking signal condition is Actual values = 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, Forecast values = 13, 14, 19, 20, 25, 26.
The balanced example has cumulative error zero and tracking signal zero.
The live calculator reports Cumulative error 0 · Tracking signal 0. Repeating one intermediate step from cumulative error / MAD provides a fixed tracking signal reference check for later code changes.
Assumptions behind tracking signal
Tracking-signal thresholds are organization-specific and should not be treated as universal statistical cutoffs.
For tracking signal, time order is part of the data. For tracking signal, reordering observations, changing the forecast origin, or mixing incomplete seasonal cycles changes the statistical question.
A second check on tracking signal
When interpreting tracking signal, keep the lag, window, seasonal period, initialization rule, and forecast horizon with the result so a later calculation uses the same timeline.
As a second check for tracking signal, outliers, ties, ordering, and missing entries can affect tracking signal even when the number of observations stays unchanged.
A practical stress test for tracking signal
Change actual values while holding the remaining entries fixed, then state why the direction and size of the tracking signal change are plausible from cumulative error / MAD.
Repeat the tracking signal exercise with forecast values. If a modest defensible change materially alters the interpretation, report both conditions rather than presenting that tracking signal scenario as exact.
Input and rounding traps
Before accepting tracking signal, compare every entered value with its label, unit, and allowed domain after reading the printed relationship from left to right.
For tracking signal, do not substitute zero for an unobserved value; missingness and a measured zero describe different data.
Another tracking signal failure occurs when a rounded output is reused as though it were the original measurement. Carry guard digits through calculations that depend on tracking signal, then round only the reported value.
When the analysis changes, compare mean forecast error, seasonal index, and root mean squared forecast error.
Rebuilding this tracking signal calculation later
Report tracking signal using cumulative error / MAD, followed by the entered values, units, exclusions, and analysis date. Name the tracking signal population or dataset boundary instead of leaving it implicit.
Keep the full calculator output with the record, including Cumulative error 0 · Tracking signal 0. A later tracking signal review can then distinguish a changed input from a different convention or software implementation.
Questions about tracking signal
What should be saved with tracking signal?
Save the entered values and units for actual values, forecast values, along with the analysis date, exclusions, software or formula version, and the relationship cumulative error / MAD. That record is sufficient to rebuild this specific tracking signal calculation.
Does tracking signal establish a causal or population conclusion?
No. The displayed tracking signal value is conditional on the entered data and named method. The tracking signal design, measurement process, and assumptions determine what can be concluded beyond those values.
How should tracking signal be rounded?
Keep the unrounded tracking signal for subsequent arithmetic, then report only the precision supported by the source measurements and the decision context. Extra digits in tracking signal do not correct sampling or model error.